Is Big Food in trouble? Five existential threats.

It’s impossible not to notice all the reports of declining food sales.  I’ve been talking about four existential threats to the food industry:

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr (“The food industry is poisoning America”)
• Ultra-processed foods (dietary guidelines advise eating less of them)
• GLP-1 drugs (they reduce food intake)
• Inflation (people can’t afford to overeat)

To these, I must add now one more.

• SNAP restrictions (they decrease purchases of sodas and sweets)

The crisis

• Is Big Food breaking? Why the industry is selling itself off:  Investors are losing patience as volume growth stalls and food giants tear up the playbook.
• Big Food splits: Smart move or strategic misstep?  Big Food’s biggest names are betting on splits, but market reactions show investors aren’t convinced. So when does breaking up actually make sense?… Read more
• Big Food’s leadership crisis: Why CEOs are falling faster than ever:  C-suite exits are mounting across Big Food, but behind the scandals lies a deeper performance and innovation problem… Read more
• Big Food splits: Smart move or strategic misstep? Big Food’s biggest names are betting on splits, but market reactions show investors aren’t convinced. So when does breaking up actually make sense?… Read more
• CEO churn exposes growing cracks in Big Food’s growth model:  Leadership changes across Big Food are starting to look less like succession and more like a response to cracks in the growth model…. Watch now
• An existential shift is coming: Dimbleby on the forces set to reshape food: The industry is already seeing a myriad of different pressures, including increased labour and input costs, but Henry Dimbleby has warned things may get much worse before they get better…. Read more
• SNAP restrictions are reshaping sugary food purchases:  Ibotta data shows states prohibiting the use of SNAP funds to buy ‘unhealthy’ products are reshaping sugary beverage and snack demand… Read more

Effects on Big Food companies

• Why Unilever’s $40bn food merger is raising red flags:  Unilever’s $40bn food deal is supposed to sharpen focus. Instead it’s unsettled stakeholders, raising questions over the success of Big Food consolidation… Read more
• Unilever shares plummet following McCormick megamerger announcement: Unilever’s $44.8bn decision to merge its Foods business with McCormick has rattled investors and raised regulatory questions… Read more
• Nestlé sells Blue Bottle Coffee to Centurium Capital:  The deal includes the brand’s cafes and the majority of its CPG business, a spokesperson confirmed.
• Nestlé slashes 450 jobs sparking union backlash: Nestlé’s set to cut more than 450 UK jobs as global restructuring begins… Read more

The bottom line: Eating less is bad for business.